Which party will people in the south Wales valleys vote for on May 7?
The Valleys Lead spoke with people in Pontypridd to find out how people were feeling about politics and which party they'd vote for on election day. We were surprised.
Hello and welcome to The Valleys Lead.
Last week, a sunny week for everyone in the south Wales valleys, The Valleys Lead spoke with people in Pontypridd about politics, the election, which party they’d vote for, and - of course - about the food at the iconic, The Prince’s.
The story is below, but first, we wanted to let you know we are hoping to continue to build a community of readers in the south Wales valleys, and you would be doing local journalism a massive favour by reading, and then sharing these newsletters on your social media feeds, or just sending them to people you think might be interested.
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The Valleys Briefing
(A little round-up of some stories in brief from our valleys.)
For a bit of local, happy news Blaenau Gwent Youth Service’s girls’ football team are preparing to depart for Mexico City to represent Wales at the Street Child World Cup. They’ll play football matches with team from around the world, experience shared cultures, and participate in a youth-led International Congress to speak directly about issues impact children and young people. “This opportunity means so much - not just for the girls individually, but for all of us as a team,” Lucy Hill, the coach, said. “We’re not only representing a small borough like Blaenau Gwent, but we’re also carrying the pride of Wales onto a global stage.”
Jamie Bevan is currently on a 2500 mile journey walking from Merthyr Tydfil to Istabul, raising money for Cylch Meithrin Y Gurnos, a Welsh-language Early Years setting based in one of Wales’ most deprived communities. He’s now been walking for 22 days. “Cylch Meithrin Y Gurnos is more than a childcare setting,” he wrote on his GoFundMe page. “It’s a lifeline for families in the Gurnos, Merthyr Tydfil, an area where poverty, social challenges, and lack of opportunity can shape a child’s future before they’ve even started school. At Cylch Meithrin Y Gurnos, children are given a real chance to thrive. They’re welcomed into a safe, caring space where they can play, learn, and grow. Through the medium of Welsh, the setting offers them the gift of bilingualism, a lifelong advantage proven to enhance cognitive ability, cultural connection, and future opportunity.”
Caerphilly councillor, Brenda Miles, who criticised library closures and was frozen out from the council’s Labour group last summer, has joined Independents. Miles said she felt “condemned” for speaking up for her community. The library closure plan is currently on hold pending a legal challenge from campaigners.
What party will people in the south Wales valleys vote for on May 7?
In just over a week, polling will open for the 2026 Senedd election. It is already historic because it represents the most significant overhaul of Welsh democracy since devolution began in 1999.
The size of the Senedd is increasing from 60 to 96 members, and voters now cast a single vote for a political party or independent candidate rather than a specific local person. The seats are allocated based on the share of votes each party or independent candidate gets. For example, if a party wins three seats, the top three people on their list will be elected to those seats.
If you want to find out the candidate lists in your constituency in the south Wales valleys, we have created a guide for you here (for Afan Ogwr Rhondda, Pontypridd Cynon Merthyr, and Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni) and here (for Casnewydd Islwyn and Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd).
The latest YouGov MRP modelling projection is that 37 seats will go to Reform UK and 36 seats for Plaid Cymru.
Explaining the polling, Dr Jac Larner from Cardiff University’s Welsh Governance Centre, said that “all polls come with a margin of error, and we should be cautious about reading too much into a single result.”
“But taken alongside the broader polling trend, the signal is clear: the race for the largest party remains between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK, with every other party - including Labour, who were dominant in Welsh politics not two years ago — competing for a distant third place and below,” Larner said.
With the polling results in mind, The Valleys Lead wanted to gauge what people in the south Wales valleys are thinking about politics, the election, and which party they intend to vote for next week.
To do that, we headed to Pontypridd, a historic market town in Rhondda Cynon Taf, spending a sunny day walking around Ynysangharad War Memorial Park, the high street, and Pontypridd Indoor Market speaking with anyone who was up for a chat.
Here’s what we heard.
