Senedd election 2026: Everything you need to know to vote today
The Valleys Lead has created a one-stop-shop for all your questions about voting today in the south Wales valleys
Today is the day, election day.
The Valleys Lead wanted to give you the chance to have one last chance to review all the information to prepare you for if and how you will vote today. Consider this a one-stop-shop to give you confidence as you vote today.
You’ll find it below and it’s free to read today.
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Everything you need to know to vote - TODAY.
Without further ado, your guide:
What’s different about this year’s Senedd election?
There have been, as you’ll know, some major changes to devolved elections in Wales. Constituency boundaries have changed, as has the voting system and the number of politicians who will be elected.
There will be sixteen constituencies throughout Wales, and each will elect six Senedd Members. Instead of the current 60 Senedd members, there will be 96. You will no longer have two votes for a constituency and regional member, but one vote for a party or independent candidate you want to represent your constituency in the Senedd.
If a party wins enough votes, they will win one or more seats in the Senedd. So, for example, if a party wins three seats in a constituency, the top three people on their list will become Members for that area. If an independent candidate wins enough votes, they will also win a seat in the Senedd for their constituency.
The seats will be allocated based on the share of votes each party or independent candidate gets. So, if Party A gets 50% of the votes in a constituency, they will likely get three of the six seats. If Party B gets 30%, they will likely get two of the six seats. If an independent candidate has enough votes, they will also win a seat.
For a deep dive (you can fit it in before you vote!) on how the voting works (because it is a bit more complicated than we have written above), the Senedd has a handy explainer here.
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What are the constituencies in the south Wales valleys?
Most of the valley towns and villages are included in one of five constituencies:
Afan Ogwr Rhondda (Treorchy, Tonypandy)
Pontypridd Cynon Merthyr (Pontypridd, Merthyr Tydfil, Aberdare, Mountain Ash, Abercynon)
Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni (Abertillery, Bargoed, Rhymney, Caerphilly)
Casnewydd Islwyn (Blackwood, Pontllanfraith, Risca)
Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd (Neath, Ystradgynlais)
If you want to find out which candidates are standing for each party, you can find our handy lists here and here.
Which party is likely to win the most seats?
There has been a lot of polling released in the last few months, but the most recent polling by ITV Cymru Wales shows that Plaid Cymru (who we spoke with earlier in the year) has jumped ahead of Reform UK (who visited Merthyr Tydfil Tuesday night) to be the predicted largest party in the Senedd Election. According to MRP modelling by YouGov for ITV Cymru Wales in partnership with Cardiff University, under the new voting system, this round of results means Plaid Cymru would win 43 seats and Reform would take 34.
Labour continues to come in at third place, at 12%, which would yield 12 seats. The Welsh Conservatives have seen a small increase in their vote share at 9% placing them in fourth which would translate into four seats. The Green Party has dropped down to fifth place at 8% which in this round of results would only net them two seats.
“However, Labour, the Conservatives and the Greens are all polling with a level of vote share that, with just a few percentage points difference either way, would have a huge impact on the number of seats won within constituencies, and then across Wales,” the ITV Cymru Wales Poll results stated. “The drop in the number of Green seats could be completely reversed if just a few thousand more votes go their way across the constituencies they are most competitive in but not currently projected to pick up the sixth seat.”
To our knowledge, there isn’t a way to know who is likely to win in the south Wales valleys.
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Should I vote tactically?
Tactical voting is when a voter supports a candidate they wouldn’t normally choose to prevent a more undesirable candidate from winning - for example, you might want to stop Reform winning in the valleys. There’s websites dedicated to trying to tell you what the best tactical vote would be in a certain area.
Should you do it? Political journalist Will Hayward wrote yesterday on tactical voting, and made a few helpful points for consideration. Here is a short breakdown but read in more depth here:
If there is a party that fits your values and speaks to your priorities, vote for them.
If you don’t care who wins, but you just really don’t want party in power, your best option mathematically (under the D’Hondt system of voting) is to vote for the biggest party that is opposed to them. If you want to stop Reform, then Plaid is mathematically the best option, Hayward said. If you want to stop Plaid Cymru, Reform is mathematically your best option. “However, this DOESN’T NECESSARILY mean that if you want to stop Reform you should vote Plaid or vice versa,” said Hayward. “This is because things will vary from seat to seat. It could be that lots of people leaving the Greens to go to Plaid in one area, causes the Greens lose out on the 6th seat, which allows Reform to get it. The key point is that you can’t be certain.”
If nothing at all matters to you except keeping a particular party from winning, the one the, according to Hayward, that you can do is not vote for a party with no chance of winning. “Under this system a party has to get at least 10% of the vote (though probably nearer 12.5%) to have a chance of a seat,” Hayward said. “If you really want to stop a party, then voting for another party that is likely to win 3% of the vote is probably not a good tactic. If a party is polling under 5%, then I would suggest they are highly unlikely to win a seat.”
How do I vote in the Senedd election?
To vote, you’ll need to register in advance (hopefully, you’ve already done this). You’ll have received a poll card in the post which will tell you where to go to vote (your polling station) on the day of the election. You can also check where you should go to vote here or here. You do not need to bring ID when you vote in a Senedd election. At your polling station you will be given a ballot paper and will have one vote for the party or independent candidate you want to represent you in the Senedd. Your ballot paper will show the full list of candidates in your constituency, so you can still see who is standing for election.
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Want to know what’s happening elsewhere?
My colleagues over at the national edition of The Lead have this great analysis on the key battlegrounds in the local elections in Wales and beyond Wales too. Westminster Editor Zoë Grünewald will have a special edition on Friday too breaking down what’s happened, so well worth signing up.
And that’s a wrap from us at The Valleys Lead. We’ll see you on the other side of the election!